ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 0900 UTC MON OCT 15 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.9W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 160SE 100SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.9W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 114.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.2N 113.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.8N 113.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.8N 113.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 27.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:42 UTC