ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL WAS MOVING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THAT PROMPTED AN SPECIAL ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 17 KNOTS. PAUL IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER MEXICO AND A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF PAUL. AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD... PAUL SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW AND DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP A WEAKENING PAUL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR A DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT IT IS HIDDEN UNDER THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT A WEAKENING PROCESS HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS...AND ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE AND REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND COOL WATERS WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AFTERWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 23.8N 112.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1200Z 27.0N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 18/1200Z 29.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 19/1200Z 31.3N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC