ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012 WINDSAT AND SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT OLIVIA HAS A TIGHT INNER CORE...AND RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BROKEN AND SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE INNER CIRCULATION. NONETHELESS...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A CONSENSUS OF THESE NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. OLIVIA IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM 29C WATER AND HAS RELATIVELY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO BEFORE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW OLIVIA TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH ONLY THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND HWRF MODELS SHOW OLIVIA REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY...THEIR SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE SINCE STORMS WITH COMPACT INNER CORES TEND TO STRENGTHEN MORE EASILY THAN THOSE WITH BROADER CIRCULATIONS. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BECOME DECOUPLED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE STORM HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/7 KT. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BEING ON ITS WESTERN FLANK...OLIVIA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...LED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH SHOW THE MOST PRONOUNCED NORTHWARD MOTION. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION...NOT GOING AS FAR AS THE ECMWF AND GFS BUT ENDING UP NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD DECOUPLE THE CIRCULATION...AND THE LOW-LEVEL PORTION IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.4N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.1N 121.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 121.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 16.7N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 17.0N 122.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 16.5N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 16.0N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 15.5N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:41 UTC