ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2012 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X 3 9 TROP DEPRESSION 7 2 1 1 3 14 30 TROPICAL STORM 90 63 25 20 37 58 50 HURRICANE 3 34 74 79 60 25 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 30 50 43 39 20 9 HUR CAT 2 X 3 17 22 15 4 1 HUR CAT 3 X 1 7 11 5 1 X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 3 1 X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 60KT 75KT 80KT 75KT 60KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 11(35) 6(41) X(41) 1(42) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 21(58) 4(62) X(62) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) 2(30) X(30) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:39 UTC