ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012 200 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2012 LANE STOPPED PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... AND IT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SINCE THE CENTER IS NOW OVER 21-22C WATER...AND LANE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW SHOULD BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH BY 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/8. LANE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND THEN TURN WESTWARD TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOW- LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 20.8N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 21.1N 131.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/0600Z 21.0N 133.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1800Z 20.8N 135.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:35 UTC