ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012 THE LITTLE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. A QUICK DEMISE TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IS EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS AS LANE MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 22C. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DECAYING VORTEX WILL BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD OR EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 20.8N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 21.1N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 21.2N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1200Z 21.0N 134.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z 20.7N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:35 UTC