ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012 MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT INCREASING THE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS. THERE IS NOTHING APPARENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD IMPEDE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH STATISTICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS. THE CENTER EITHER REFORMED WITHIN THE CONVECTION OR THE PREVIOUS LOCATION WAS TOO FAR NORTH...MOST LIKELY IT IS A COMBINATION OF BOTH. TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION THESE UNCERTAINTIES...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN...LANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY MOVES LANE NORTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE LANE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 12.8N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 12.8N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 13.7N 125.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 14.8N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 16.0N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 19.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z 19.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:35 UTC