ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012 ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...KRISTY HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT KRISTY IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SSTS OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND IT WILL BE HARD TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER WITH SUCH A COOL OCEAN BENEATH. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING...AND KRISTY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR EARLIER. KRISTY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK SHALLOW LOW LINGERING FOR A FEW DAYS TO THE WEST OF BUT AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 22.4N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 23.3N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 25.0N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 26.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC