ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012 THE CLOUD TOPS OF KRISTY HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IN A SMALL BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 40 OR 45 KT...AND THE LOWER VALUE IS CHOSEN AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED BASED ON THE DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS KRISTY MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36H. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT KRISTY HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 24H...BUT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 21.2N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 22.0N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 23.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 24.2N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 25.1N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 26.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC