ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 200 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2012 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMING THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF KRISTY. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGE...A 0428 UTC AMSU PASS... INDICATED SOME NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TILT OF THE CIRCULATION...AND RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SHARPER NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS...ALONG WITH ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS...SUGGESTS SOME NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS STARTED AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. KRISTY IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND THIS IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX AND KRISTY WILL STILL BE OVER WARM WATER AND IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS KRISTY WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATE AFTER THAT TIME. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL MODEL WHICH REMAINS AN OUTLIER AS IT SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 18.5N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 19.0N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 19.6N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 21.7N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 23.9N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 25.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z 25.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC