ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2012 THE CENTER OF JOHN REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WITH NO SIGNS OF DEEP CONVECTION. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0400 UTC INDICATED THAT THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS ABOUT 30 KT. A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE CIRCULATION OVER COOLER WATERS IS LIKELY...AND JOHN SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...310/11. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS LIKELY IN A FEW DAYS AS JOHN...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...MOVES AROUND A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES A BIT TO THE WEST OF TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 22.5N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 23.5N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0600Z 24.6N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 25.6N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 26.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 28.5N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:29 UTC