ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012 800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012 ILEANA HAS SPORADICALLY DISPLAYED A RAGGED EYE THIS EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER TRMM OVER PASS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT A 4.5 AND 4.0 CI NUMBER RESPECTIVELY...WHICH SUPPORT KEEPING THE INTENSITY CURRENTLY AT 75 KT. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING AT 335/5 AS IT IS APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA WOULD ACT TO RECURVE THE HURRICANE TOWARD MEXICO OR THE UNITED STATES IF THE CYCLONE RETAINED A DEEP STRUCTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ILEANA SHOULD WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED THIS CYCLE AS THE GFS...WHILE STILL THE NORTHERNMOST SOLUTION...IS NOW SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER SOUTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS LIKELY THAT ILEANA HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AS RATHER HOSTILE THERMODYNAMICS ARE SOON TO BE EXPERIENCED. SO WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE WATER TEMPERATURE COOLS BELOW 26 CELSIUS AND THE MOISTURE DROPS CONSIDERABLY IN ABOUT A DAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AS INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN AND IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 21.2N 114.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 21.8N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 22.6N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 23.1N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 23.6N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 24.3N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0000Z 24.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:28 UTC