ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012 200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012 ILEANA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE SINCE THIS MORNING. A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION NOW WRAPS COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER...AND A RAGGED BANDED EYE HAS APPEARED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO A CONSENSUS T4.5...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. ILEANA IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...ILEANA WILL MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 3 DAYS. ILEANA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 5 KT. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS ILEANA MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS OVER THE TRACK OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. THE GFS DEPICTS A DEEPER TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CYCLONE THAT RESULTS IN A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW OF ILEANA TURNING WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION...WHICH IS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 20.5N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 21.1N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 21.9N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 22.8N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 23.4N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 24.3N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z 25.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1800Z 25.5N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:28 UTC