ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012 200 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2012 ILEANA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE STORM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND BRINGS ILEANA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...COOLER WATERS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 22C. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A TROUGH WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AFTER 48 HOURS...ILEANA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 17.6N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 18.5N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 19.5N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 20.3N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 20.9N 115.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 21.9N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 23.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:28 UTC