ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012 ILEANA APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY...AND CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS...ALTHOUGH BROKEN AND NOT VERY DEEP...EXIST IN MOST QUADRANTS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE 45 KT AND 50 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS WERE NEAR 50 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ILEANA REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IN A MOIST AIRMASS...AND OVER WARM WATER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND INTO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THESE MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 9 KT. THIS HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD CALIFORNIA. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN THE WEST IS EXPECTED BEYOND 3 DAYS AS ILEANA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AIDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.0N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 17.8N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 18.7N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 19.6N 114.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 20.3N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 21.5N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 22.2N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 22.5N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:28 UTC