ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 800 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2012 THE CENTER OF HECTOR REMAINS EXPOSED...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SINGLE BURST NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT HECTOR HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT. THE WEAKENING TREND SEEN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH...AND HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON THESE FACTORS... HECTOR IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW AFTER 24 HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF HECTOR IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE LATEST FIXES SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF 355/5. THE FORECAST REASONING IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE NEW CENTER LOCATION...AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 18.8N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 19.7N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 20.8N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 21.7N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 22.5N 116.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 23.5N 117.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:24 UTC