ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 800 AM PDT WED AUG 15 2012 FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HECTOR REMAINS A SHEARED CYCLONE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB. IN ADDITION...RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE NEAR 37 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF HECTOR IS FARTHER NORTH...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE EAST...OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 360/4. A COMBINATION OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD STEER HECTOR SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO... FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HECTOR IS OVER A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TONGUE OF 27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD REACH 26C SSTS IN ABOUT 12 HR AND 24C SSTS BY 48 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR HECTOR TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 24 HR AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW AFTER 36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.8N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 18.2N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 19.3N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 20.2N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 21.3N 116.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 23.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:24 UTC