ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012 STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO PUSH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF HECTOR...LEAVING IT EXPOSED. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DROPPING...SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 995 MB AND 25 KT...SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER EARLIER TODAY. THEREFORE THE INITIAL WINDS ARE LEFT AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MODERATE OR STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE SINCE SSTS ONLY GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS THINKING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HECTOR IS LIKELY TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 4 OR 5 DAYS... IF NOT SOONER. THE EXPOSED CENTER HAS PROVIDED A RELIABLE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/5. HECTOR SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...CAUSING HECTOR TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT HAS SHRUNK SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION...AND LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL AND HFIP CONSENSUS AIDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 18.1N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 18.1N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 18.2N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 18.3N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 18.4N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 19.1N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 19.8N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:24 UTC