ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE MIDDLE- AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF GILMA ARE BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE. SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 50 KT AT THIS TIME...BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOLING WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST WITHIN 36 HR...AND IT COULD OCCUR SOONER GIVEN THE 23C SSTS ANTICIPATED AT THAT TIME. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT GILMA IS MOVING AROUND 340/4. A GRADUAL LEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED SHOULD OCCUR AS GILMA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 19.5N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.0N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 20.6N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 21.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 21.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:23 UTC