ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012 200 AM PDT WED AUG 08 2012 A 0512Z METOP-A AMSU OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF GLIMA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A PARTIALLY CLOSED EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND A WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BAND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED MICROWAVE PRESENTATION SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT. THE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...THEREFORE...GILMA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATER ON...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C AND INTO A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH AGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING IN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP GILMA ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INTERACTION WITH A LARGE AREA OF BROAD LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ERNESTO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AROUND DAY 3. THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY OR STALL...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 96 AND 120 HOUR FORECAST POINTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCE AND HFIP TV15 CONCENSUS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 15.6N 116.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 16.2N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.8N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 17.4N 119.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 17.9N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 19.5N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 20.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:23 UTC