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Tropical Depression FABIO (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2012

FABIO CONTINUES TO GENERATE A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION
ABOUT 130 N MI NNW OF THE CENTER.  A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED
30 KT WINDS EAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.  THE CENTER IS NOW OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 20C...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT FABIO WILL
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO TOTALLY DISSIPATED AFTER 48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION.
 
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER
48 HR...THE REMNANT MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE PLUME ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  THIS COULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 24.9N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 25.9N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/0600Z 27.0N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/1800Z 27.9N 119.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0600Z 28.6N 119.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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