ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012 FABIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED AS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE WARM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS FABIO MOVES ACROSS A SHARP SST GRADIENT. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME AS THE CYCLONE REACHES SUB-23C WATERS BY 24 HOURS WITH EVEN COOLER SSTS AHEAD. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 48 HOURS SHOULD SHEAR OFF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/09. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FABIO WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD INTO AN EXPANDING BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. AFTER THE CYCLONE SHEARS APART...THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.8N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 18.5N 120.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 19.6N 121.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 20.9N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 22.3N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 25.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z 26.2N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:20 UTC