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Hurricane FABIO (Text)

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HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
 
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF FABIO IS
DISPLACED ABOUT 20 N MI TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
CYCLONE.  IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...FABIO HAS STILL BEEN ABLE TO GAIN
STRENGTH.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS AROUND 75 KT.  IN ADDITION...AMSU DATA FROM
EARLIER TODAY YIELDED AN ESTIMATE OF 72 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING FABIO FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  SINCE THE SHEAR DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE BEEN TOO
MUCH OF A LIMITING FACTOR THUS FAR AND FABIO WILL STILL BE OVER
SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS STILL ONLY 2
PERCENT...SO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  FABIO
SHOULD MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE UPDATED
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AND ONLY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FABIO IS MAINTAINING A MOTION OF 300/9 KT.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD
CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO
UNTIL THE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST DEEPENS ENOUGH TO SEVER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG 28N.  AT THAT POINT...FABIO
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD BY DAY 5. 
THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FABIO HAS BECOME A MORE SYMMETRIC CYCLONE...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1642 UTC ASCAT PASS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 15.6N 111.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 16.1N 112.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 16.5N 114.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 16.8N 115.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 17.3N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 24.0N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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