ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012 800 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FABIO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT WAS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A 13/0015Z SSMIS OVERPASS REVEALED THE PRESENCE OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN THE EAST QUADRANT. A BLEND OF THE SAB AND TAFB FINAL-T NUMBERS SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FABIO STRENGTHENING TO A LOW-END HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD....THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND THE LGEM MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. VISIBLE IMAGES AND A COUPLE OF TIMELY MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT THAN BEFORE...280/9. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A GROWING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH TIME DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ARE EXHIBITED IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND THE GFDL INDICATE AN EARLIER AND FASTER TURN INTO THE WEAKNESS...AROUND DAY 3 OR 4...WHILE THE GFS/HWRF/UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW LESS INFLUENCE AND A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION ADJUSTMENT...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO...BUT TO THE LEFT OF...THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 13.9N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 14.4N 110.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 15.1N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 15.6N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 19.0N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:20 UTC