ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012 VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED A FEW 30-35 KT VECTORS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AS EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH A STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO SPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMANANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR SOONER. EMILIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AT AROUND 14 KT. A WESTWARD TO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 15.7N 136.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 15.5N 138.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.3N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 15.1N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 15.0N 146.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 15.0N 152.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 15.0N 158.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:18 UTC