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Hurricane EMILIA (Text)

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HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012
 
THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND
A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED. A 09/0330 UTC
SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAD
DEVELOPED. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB...EMILIA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE CONVENTIONAL AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS YIELDS AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/10 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE HURRICANE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...BUT THEN
DIVERGES AFTER THAT WITH THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA DUE WEST AND THE
GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKING THE HURRICANE MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS NOW SHIFTED FROM SOUTH OF
TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE
DISTINCT NORTHWARD-BIAS OF THE GFS MODEL WITH HURRICANE DANIEL...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND
IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TV15. 

BASED ON THE TIGHT INNER CORE NOTED IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS AND FSSE/FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...WHICH ARE FORECASTING AN INCREASE OF 32 KT
AND 33 KT...RESPECTIVELY...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15
KT...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO LEVEL OFF THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS UNTIL
EMILIA REACHES COOLER WATERS BY ABOUT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...
THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSE FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSSE
INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 11.9N 109.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 12.4N 110.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 13.0N 113.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 13.5N 114.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 13.9N 116.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 14.6N 120.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 15.4N 124.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 16.4N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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