ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILIA HAS BEEN IMPROVING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME ELONGATION TO THE NORTH...BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT AND CURVED AROUND THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...A WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTED A BANDING EYE WAS ATTEMPTING TO FORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT...WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAN ON SOMEWHAT HIGHER MICROWAVE-BASED ESTIMATES. NOW THAT THE INNER CORE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...IT APPEARS THAT EMILIA COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT ANY TIME WITH WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR 29C AND VERY LITTLE SHEAR. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ALSO SUGGESTS A 54 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE EVENT IS DIFFICULT...IT IS PROBABLE THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WEAKENING COULD BEGIN IN ABOUT THREE DAYS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN SSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 285/13. EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT LIES SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WHILE A TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INDUCE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION AFTER THAT TIME...THE BULK OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW RIDGING BUILDING IN BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS RIDGE WOULD CAUSE EMILIA TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE LONGER RANGE...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME FRAME. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 11.4N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 12.1N 109.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 12.7N 111.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 13.4N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 13.9N 115.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 14.3N 118.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 14.8N 122.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 15.5N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:18 UTC