ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012 DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS THIS EVENING. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REMAINS OVER SSTS OF 24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS. DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE UPDATED TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE EVENLOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 15.4N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 15.5N 146.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 15.5N 149.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:15 UTC