ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 200 AM PDT THU JUL 05 2012 IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER DATA. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE HAS BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD BY FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DURING THAT TIME...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. AS A RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 13.9N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 14.3N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 14.8N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 15.2N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 15.3N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 15.5N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 15.8N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 16.3N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:14 UTC