ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 800 PM PDT WED JUL 04 2012 THERE STILL HAVE NOT BEEN ANY FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES TO THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS LARGE AND WELL DEFINED...BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE CONFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE MAY BE LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT AT 30 KT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO DEFINITIVE EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS 290/10 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FAIRLY CONSTANT SPEED THROUGH DAY 5. LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST...AND THE NEW ONE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE COULD CONTINUE NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE ONLY SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 3. THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHER THAN THAT SHOWN BY THE STANDARD INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS ONLY ECLIPSED BY THE VERSION OF THE HWRF THAT USES THE ECMWF AS ITS BACKGROUND. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER...MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER DAY 3...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 13.6N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 14.0N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 14.5N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 14.9N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.1N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 15.2N 121.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:14 UTC