ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012 THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA IS STILL NOTICEABLE IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE CENTER IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS ORGANIZATION. CARLOTTA HAS THEREFORE BECOME A REMNANT LOW. THE LOW IS MOVING AT 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT AND SHOULD KEEP THIS MOTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANY LEFTOVER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SPIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD MERGE WITH OR BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER CIRCULATION FARTHER WEST OVER THE PACIFIC IN A FEW DAYS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. EVEN THOUGH CARLOTTA SHOULD DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 18.1N 100.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 17/1200Z 18.2N 100.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:11 UTC