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Hurricane CARLOTTA (Text)

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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
 
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION OF CARLOTTA IS INTERACTING WITH
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BEGUN TO DETERIORATE. THE DISTINCT EYE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY HAS
BECOME OBSCURE. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 80 KNOTS. ASSUMING THAT THE
EYE OR THE CENTER MOVES COMPLETELY INLAND...WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...AND THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR. CARLOTTA
COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS OR LESS.
HOWEVER...ONE HAS TO BE CAUTIOUS...AND IF THE CENTER MOVES ALONG
THE COAST INSTEAD...CARLOTTA WOULD NOT WEAKEN AS FAST AS INDICATED.
GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS MAINTAINED
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO AT THIS TIME. 

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT
9 KNOTS STEERED BY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING
CURRENTS WILL COLLAPSE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY MEANDER OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
TURN CARLOTTA EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY IN THE LONG RANGE. 
 
EVEN IF CARLOTTA BECOMES A WEAK SYSTEM...THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION
COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 15.9N  97.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 16.5N  98.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/0000Z 17.0N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/1200Z 17.5N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z 17.0N  99.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0000Z 17.0N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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