ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 0300 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 12 50 65 NA TROP DEPRESSION X X 8 23 35 25 NA TROPICAL STORM X 23 51 31 15 10 NA HURRICANE 99 77 40 34 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 13 53 27 21 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 60 19 9 9 X X NA HUR CAT 3 26 5 3 3 X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95KT 85KT 60KT 40KT 30KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) SAN BLAS 34 3 13(16) 18(34) 9(43) 16(59) X(59) X(59) SAN BLAS 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 4 50(54) 17(71) 3(74) 9(83) X(83) X(83) P VALLARTA 50 1 8( 9) 14(23) 4(27) 11(38) X(38) X(38) P VALLARTA 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 47 45(92) 2(94) 2(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 3 46(49) 9(58) 4(62) 7(69) X(69) X(69) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 22(22) 5(27) 2(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33) MANZANILLO 34 31 51(82) 5(87) 3(90) 4(94) 1(95) X(95) MANZANILLO 50 2 22(24) 7(31) 4(35) 7(42) X(42) X(42) MANZANILLO 64 X 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 10(13) 14(27) 12(39) 19(58) X(58) X(58) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:10 UTC