ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 200 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012 ...BUD WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 105.6W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST. BUD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY...BUT BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:08 UTC