ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 200 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING BUD...AND ON THE FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER THE PLANE MEASURED A MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 108 KT AND A MAXIMUM SFMR ESTIMATE OF 89 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KT...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PLANE COULD FIND STRONGER WINDS ONCE IT FLIES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BUD HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN AS HAD BEEN SHOWN BY THE MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 8 KT...AND BUD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COASTLINE BEFORE IT IS IMPEDED BY A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN AND SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHING THE COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. EVEN IF THE PLANE DOES NOT FIND STRONGER WINDS...THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND PROBABLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO ITS WEST...BUD IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL BRING BUD TO THE COAST AS A HURRICANE...AND THAT IS SHOWN IN THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST. FASTER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...AND THE FORECAST SHOWS BUD DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...IF NOT SOONER. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE IN 3-4 DAYS. NOW THAT THE FORECAST BRINGS BUD TO THE COAST AS A HURRICANE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 16.4N 106.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 17.4N 105.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 18.6N 105.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 19.8N 105.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 26/1800Z 20.5N 105.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/1800Z 19.5N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 28/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:09 UTC