ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 200 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012 CORRECTED STATUS AT 96H IN TABLE DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED AND ONLY A FEW SMALL CELLS REMAIN NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH IN FACT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. A RECENT ASCT PASS MEASURED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS ONLY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN...OR THE LACK OF...ALETTA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. DRY AIR AND SOUTHERLY SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING...PERHAPS FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 295/03. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL SOON DEVELOP SOUTH OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD DRIFT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 11.7N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 12.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 12.5N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 13.0N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z 13.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z 13.5N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:03 UTC