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Tropical Storm TONY (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
500 PM AST WED OCT 24 2012
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF TONY HAS DETERIORATED RAPIDLY DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON A COMMA-LIKE
SHAPE MORE BEFITTING OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY. SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB
AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CI VALUES. THE COLD FRONT SEEN APPROACHING
TONY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLIER APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING IT...WITH
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND SOUTH SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE NHC
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
NOW SHOWN WITHIN 12 HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.
 
TONY HAS ACCELERATED FURTHER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
065/22.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GENERALLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD IN A DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 
ROTATES CYCLONICALLY AROUND A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW FORMING OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS JUST AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 29.6N  42.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 30.7N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  25/1800Z 31.9N  35.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  26/0600Z 33.4N  31.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  26/1800Z 35.0N  28.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/1800Z 38.0N  24.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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