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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
200 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.  A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
 
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.  A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.  THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREA OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN AREAS.  THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
 
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