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Hurricane SANDY (Text)

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HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
 
CUBAN RADAR DATA AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY TO 954 MB...
AND A 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE HAS DEVELOPED.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED
700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 102 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE
ESTIMATES OF 75-80 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF THESE DATA...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB...ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS...ARE
AT OR ABOVE 100 KT.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT SANDY IS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA IN A FEW HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/11.  THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST SANDY TO MOVE AROUND AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
LOW...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN.  FROM 48-96 HR...A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
STEER THE MERGED SYSTEM GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD.  THE GUIDANCE
BECOMES DIVERGENT AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL/NOGAPS TURNING
THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE GFS/HWRF SHOWING A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THIS IS IN PART
DUE TO A LARGE CHANGE IN THE GFS FORECAST AFTER 72 HR.  THUS...THE
NEW FORECAST WILL SHIFTED ONLY A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THIS
TIME...AND IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.  HOWEVER...
IT REMAINS EAST OF THE ECMWF/NOGAPS/GFDL MODELS.
 
GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR SANDY TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHILE CROSSING CUBA.  WHEN
THE CENTER EMERGES NORTH OF CUBA...IT IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND BAROCLINIC ENERGY.  WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW SANDY TO
STAY AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WIND
FIELD WILL SPREAD OUT AND THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTER IN THE PROCESS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 24 HR.  THE FORECAST WILL
STILL CALL FOR SANDY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HR...ALTHOUGH
THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 19.4N  76.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 21.6N  76.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 24.4N  76.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 26.3N  76.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 27.6N  77.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 30.5N  74.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 33.5N  71.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 37.0N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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