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Hurricane RAFAEL (Text)

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HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
200 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
 
...RAINS FROM RAFAEL HAVE BEGUN IN BERMUDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...29.5N 64.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY TOMORROW.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE DATA IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
 
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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