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Tropical Storm NADINE (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  76
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012
 
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT NADINE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS
ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT...MAKING
NADINE A TROPICAL STORM...AGAIN.
 
NADINE IS NEARING THE END OF ANOTHER LOOP AS IT MOVES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED
AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS AHEAD OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...NADINE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTANGLED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND BEGIN
ACCELERATING TO THE NORTH BY DAY 3. AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER NADINE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE
TROUGH...OR WILL ACCELERATE OFF TO THE EAST AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW. 
THE FORECAST SPLITS THESE TWO SCENARIOS...AND SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF
NADINE SLOWING DOWN BY DAY 5...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME ABSORBED
BEFORE THAT.
 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 23 C...AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROUGH...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 4...
NADINE IS MERCIFULLY EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  IN
FACT...THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE DEVOID
OF DEEP CONVECTION BY 72 HOURS...SO NADINE COULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL EVEN EARLIER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND IS VERY NEAR THE
FSSE CONSENSUS MODEL.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...AS NADINE MAKES ITS SECOND APPROACH TOWARD
THE ISLANDS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 35.8N  39.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 35.3N  38.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 34.9N  37.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 34.9N  36.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 35.4N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 40.0N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 47.0N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  06/1200Z 49.0N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN
 
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