ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2012 NADINE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD...AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. UW-CIMSS ADT AND NHC AODT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE T2.6/37 KT AND T2.5/35 KT...AND A 25/0054 UTC OSCAT OVERPASS THAT ARRIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ISSUED SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 260/5. OVERALL...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADINE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE NADINE SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT MOTION...THE FORWARD SPEED OF NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER SLOW AT AROUND 5 KT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIVERGENT AT DAYS 4-5...SO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH NADINE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER 96 HOURS OR SO...SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY LATER AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE UNITED STATES. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 32.1N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 31.8N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 31.1N 30.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 30.0N 30.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 29.0N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 29.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 30.0N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 32.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC