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Tropical Storm NADINE (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST MON SEP 24 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOME DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND
SHEAR PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSES...SCATTEROMETER DATA...
AND PRESSURE REPORTS FROM NEARBY BUOY 41676 INDICATE NADINE HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY.

NADINE IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 295/05
KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NADINE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER
HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAK STEERING PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE
NADINE ON A WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72
HORUS...BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...COLD WATER UPWELLING...AND MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...DECREASING SHEAR COMBINED WITH
WARMER SSTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSE TO INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND IVCN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 31.4N  26.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 31.6N  27.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 31.7N  29.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 31.5N  30.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 30.9N  31.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 29.5N  32.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 30.0N  34.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 33.0N  35.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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