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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC THU AUG 23 2012
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 1 2 5 10 13 22
TROP DEPRESSION 16 10 15 17 18 13 13
TROPICAL STORM 81 77 51 59 51 44 38
HURRICANE 2 12 32 20 21 29 28
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 11 26 16 17 23 21
HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 3 3 4 5
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 2 2
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 65KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 70KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 8(28)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 8(36)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 8(39)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 8(35)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 12(33)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 15(30)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 16(27)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 4(25)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) 1(29)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 16(37) 1(38)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 4(31) X(31)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 1(21) X(21)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 1(26)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 8(37) 1(38)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 28(51) X(51) 1(52)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) X(19)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 13(13) 25(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 38(39) 22(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAPE BEATA 34 X 5( 5) 51(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 7(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 29(30) 41(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PONCE 34 24 30(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
SAN JUAN 34 14 16(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
SAINT THOMAS 34 14 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
SAINT CROIX 34 32 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AVES 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:27 UTC