ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 0900 UTC WED AUG 22 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 7 10 11 TROP DEPRESSION 6 4 3 4 13 12 8 TROPICAL STORM 90 73 50 37 52 52 36 HURRICANE 5 23 46 59 28 25 46 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 20 37 39 22 20 30 HUR CAT 2 X 2 6 13 5 4 12 HUR CAT 3 X 1 2 6 1 2 3 HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 55KT 65KT 75KT 65KT 65KT 80KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 17(33) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 9(32) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 6(23) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 1(23) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) X(19) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 10(33) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 27(44) 1(45) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 11(43) X(43) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 4(50) X(50) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 40(50) 1(51) X(51) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 1(36) X(36) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 27(62) 1(63) X(63) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) X(24) X(24) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) 33(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) PONCE 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) PONCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN 34 X 2( 2) 31(33) 18(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 3( 3) 37(40) 4(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X 6( 6) 55(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 15(15) 14(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 44(44) 12(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 1 28(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BARBUDA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 1 50(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ANTIGUA 50 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 2 81(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) GUADELOUPE 50 X 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GUADELOUPE 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X 27(27) 28(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) AVES 50 X 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) AVES 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 1 36(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) DOMINICA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:27 UTC