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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
2100 UTC MON AUG 06 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 2 17 24 46
TROP DEPRESSION 1 1 2 9 19 7 20
TROPICAL STORM 72 41 36 59 48 45 24
HURRICANE 27 58 61 30 16 25 10
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 25 48 47 23 14 20 8
HUR CAT 2 1 7 11 5 2 4 1
HUR CAT 3 1 2 3 2 X 1 X
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60KT 70KT 75KT 60KT 60KT 65KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17)
TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 3(24)
TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) 2(29)
VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10)
VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 20(29) 3(32) X(32)
FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 23(37) 4(41) X(41) X(41)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 1 7( 8) 33(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BELIZE 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 6(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUANAJA 34 1 13(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
GUANAJA 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11)
ISLE OF PINES 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:18 UTC