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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 X 1 3 9 19
TROP DEPRESSION 3 5 4 4 7 13 22
TROPICAL STORM 90 75 52 44 43 38 45
HURRICANE 7 20 44 52 48 40 14
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 6 17 37 37 33 27 12
HUR CAT 2 1 2 5 10 11 9 1
HUR CAT 3 X X 2 4 4 3 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 65KT 70KT 75KT 80KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 23(34) 8(42)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 5(24)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 11(31) 2(33)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 2(16) X(16)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 16(26) 5(31)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) 1(21)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 14(32) 2(34) 1(35)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) 4(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KINGSTON 34 X 10(10) 18(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LES CAYES 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAPE BEATA 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:18 UTC