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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
0900 UTC FRI AUG 03 2012
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 2 2 4 9
TROP DEPRESSION 6 9 9 9 9 9 13
TROPICAL STORM 90 77 68 57 54 47 44
HURRICANE 4 13 23 33 35 40 35
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 4 11 19 26 27 30 24
HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 5 6 7 9
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 2 3 2
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 75KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CURACAO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 10(27)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 5(40)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 7(41) X(41)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 2(47) X(47)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 14(26) X(26) X(26)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
PONCE 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JUAN 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANTIGUA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUADELOUPE 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
AVES 34 14 7(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
DOMINICA 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
MARTINIQUE 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
SAINT LUCIA 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
SAINT VINCENT 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:18 UTC