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Tropical Storm ERNESTO (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012               
2100 UTC THU AUG 02 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       2       2       3       4       3       7
TROP DEPRESSION  7      16      14      17      16       9      13
TROPICAL STORM  89      75      70      63      59      50      48
HURRICANE        4       8      15      17      22      37      33
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        4       7      12      14      18      29      24
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       3       3       6       8
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       1       2       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    45KT    50KT    50KT    55KT    65KT    70KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
SAN ANDRES     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  12(27)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  21(25)   3(28)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  17(27)   1(28)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   3(18)   X(18)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
AVES           34  X   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
DOMINICA       34  2  10(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  6  24(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  9  62(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  5  65(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
SAINT VINCENT  50  X  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
SAINT VINCENT  64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BARBADOS       34 68  18(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
BARBADOS       50  6   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
BARBADOS       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GRENADA        34  1  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:18 UTC