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SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
0300 UTC SUN MAY 27 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 7 19 33 37 39
TROP DEPRESSION 7 22 29 38 32 21 15
TROPICAL STORM 89 70 59 38 32 37 37
HURRICANE 4 6 6 5 2 5 9
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 5 5 4 2 5 8
HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 X 1 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 40KT 30KT 30KT 40KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 1(15)
WILMINGTON NC 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 1(16)
COLUMBIA SC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 3(15) X(15)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) 7(18) X(18)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 12(22) 3(25) 1(26)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
AUGUSTA GA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 3 14(17) 5(22) 5(27) 13(40) 1(41) X(41)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MAYPORT NS 34 4 48(52) 10(62) 2(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66)
MAYPORT NS 50 X 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17)
MAYPORT NS 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 3 40(43) 15(58) 3(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 22(24) 8(32) 4(36) 4(40) 1(41) X(41)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ORLANDO FL 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
PATRICK AFB 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
FT PIERCE FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 5( 5) 11(16) 5(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 7(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:08 UTC